This week, we surveyed members across New Zealand to understand at this point how the Middle East conflict is impacting. The results are sobering.
The impact is widespread.
Of those who responded to the survey, just 6% reported no effect. For the rest, the pressure is coming from multiple directions.
More than two thirds of you (67%) are seeing reduced customer numbers and covers — the most commonly cited impact. Close behind, 62% are dealing with increased fuel and delivery costs, and 46% with higher food and beverage costs. Reduced spend per customer (44%) and increased cancellations or no-shows (39%) round out the picture.
When asked how much of this you attributed to the Middle East conflict specifically, the response was unambiguous. More than 75% said the conflict was either “mostly” or “entirely” responsible for the changes you’re experiencing.
Customer numbers are also tracking down compared to this time last year. Nearly 70% of you reported covers running either slightly or significantly lower than the same period in 2025 — with only 16% reporting improvement.
Looking ahead, rising food and beverage costs (86%), reduced customer demand (80%), and rising fuel and delivery costs (79%) are the top concerns. Nearly half of you — 47% — named business viability as a top concern.
On pricing, 80% said you were actively considering adjustments but hadn’t yet acted. Just 7% had already moved on pricing, while 12% had no plans to change.
Selected comments
“Here we go again. Yet another economic recovery false start. Another punch in the face for hospo. Mentally draining times for sure.”
“People are scared of what their money will no longer cover, and therefore luxuries like dining out is the first pleasure to go.”
“The uncertainty is very unsettling. We operate rurally, so people are already paying a lot more just to get to us — so I’m really reluctant to put prices up but realise we will have to.”
“Revenue is declining and costs are increasing — we’re being squeezed from both ends.”
“The thought of facing another challenging year on the back of so many is really hard to deal with. Our mental health will suffer and we worry about getting the business through another tough year.”
The theme running through so many of your responses is fatigue. We’ve navigated COVID, inflationary pressure, and dire economic environment in 2025, slow recovery — and now here’s another external shock, completely outside our control.
What you can do right now to mitigate impacts
There are no easy answers, but there are practical steps you can take to protect your margins and reduce your exposure. We’ve outlined seven strategies in detail — from rethinking your menu and tightening food waste, to managing energy costs and pivoting your marketing toward domestic diners.
Read: Middle East conflict — how Kiwi hospitality operators can mitigate rising costs
For general information on fuel updates the following links are useful:
- Fuel supply and energy system (MBIE) – Middle East conflict and New Zealand’s fuel stocks | Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment
- Beehive Fuel Plan Announcement – https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/fuel-plan-protect-economy-amid-disruption
- EECA fuel saving advice – https://www.eeca.govt.nz/